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Dumb Data: Why you should be afraid of flying


Everyone has heard that you have a greater chance of dying on your way to the airport rather than on the plane. That’s what the data tells us. And yet, thousands of people are scared of flying but very few are scared of driving. Why are people so afraid of flying? The data suggests their fear is irrational. But maybe it's not. Maybe they have good reason to be afraid of flying and not afraid of driving.


Why? Well maybe because deadly car accidents mostly happen when YOU are driving recklessly. When YOU are drunk, when YOU are speeding, when YOU are on your phone etc. Now of course there is a chance that you can be driving absolutely perfectly and a truck comes and hits you out of nowhere and there’s nothing you can do to react. But I am pretty sure that doesn’t account for most deadly accidents on the road. 


You see people make the mistake of assuming that a plane crash and a car crash are both equally random events. That is false. You have no control over a plane crashing. But you have a lot of control over the way you drive. 


So Iet's ask the same well known question as before but this time let's assume a few things.


Assume you are driving to the airport. Assume you are following the speed limit and traffic rules. Assume you are sober and well rested. Assume you are an experienced confident driver. Assume reasonable weather conditions. Assume you are not distracted by your phone or by other people. Assume your vehicle has passed all the necessary checks and is safe to drive. 


Now is the probability of you dying from a car crash on your way to the airport still greater than that of you dying in a plane crash? The answer is I don’t know. So I asked chatGPT.


Me: What's the probability of dying in a car crash on your way to the airport?


ChatGPT: The probability of dying in a car accident on a 30-mile trip to the airport is approximately 1 in 2.8 million. ​​


Me: What's the probability of dying on a given flight?


ChatGPT: The risk of a fatal accident on a commercial flight is about 1 in 11 million.


Me: Now recalculate the probability of dying on your way to the airport assuming you are: following the speed limit and traffic rules, sober, well rested, not distracted, experienced driver, safe vehicle, weather is reasonable.


ChatGPT:

  • Adhering to Speed Limits and Traffic Rules: Reduces risk by approximately 29%.

  • Sober and Well Rested: Reduces risk by approximately 28%.

  • Driver Experience and Attentiveness: Reduces risk by approximately 9%.

  • Good Weather: Reduces risk by approximately 21%.

  • Vehicle Maintenance: Estimated to reduce risk by around 5%.


Assuming these factors combined reduce the risk by around 70-80%, we'll use a 75% reduction as an estimate for our calculation:


So, the probability with the assumptions is approximately 1 in 11.1 million


That is indeed lower than the probability of dying in a plane crash. So if the assumptions above hold, you have less of a chance of dying on your way to the airport rather than in a plane crash.


But even if it weren't so. Even if you do have a greater chance of dying on your way to the airport rather than on the plane; does this mean you should be more afraid of driving than of flying? Is the probability of things going wrong the only thing that matters here?


When two events both have extremely low probabilities of happening we don't really care which of them has a lower probability than the other. We mostly care about the contents of the actual events, something that probability has nothing to with. Let me paint a picture.


Let's play a game of would you rather.


Would you rather:


A) Have a 1 in 10 million chance of being murdered by a serial killer


or


B) Have a 1 in 1 million chance of dying in a car crash


Most people would choose B, even though with B you have a 10 times greater chance of dying. Are people stupid to choose B? No, they are simply human. And humans care about how they are going to die, and not just the likelihood of it, especially when we are talking about extreme scenarios with low probability.


So to present two events as being the same when they are not is foolish. To say that dying in a car crash is the same as dying in a plane crash is foolish. To simply look at these two events solely through the lens of probability and then say to your friend seating in the window seat next to you "well you know there's actually a higher chance you'll die on your way to the airport rather than on the plane" is you just being a statistical smartass.


Maybe your friend doesn't want to die on the metal tube that's flying 10,000 feet above the ground. And maybe that's a reasonable thing.







1 Comment


India Gloag
India Gloag
Jul 26, 2024

Loved reading it, really insightful

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